Abstract:
fundamental applied probability and reliability methods within one term of study so
that, as the course outcome, students can perform first-order probability of failure
analysis on Civil Engineering problems. To achieve this outcome I present a
simplified or streamlined approach to the material:
• Only basic necessary statistical methods are presented, focusing on an intuitive
understanding of the data and what it can tell us about past events.
• Probability is presented in a systematic manner to make solving the often tricky
probability problems more tractable.
• Only the normal and lognormal distributions are used in this text because
of their useful mathematical properties and because they can often approximate
a solution adequately for a first-order analysis.
• Functions of random variables are presented in a canonical manner to make
solving straightforward.
• A comprehensive set of reliability methods is presented, with emphasis on
methods that can be solved with minimal background in higher math.
• The tools of decision analysis, systems analysis, and other related topics are
presented in an applied and usable manner.
• Many examples covering a wide range of problems are presented.
New in this second edition are: more example problems, numerical solutions
presented in both MATLAB and R, and new chapters on spatial variability and
Bayesian updating.
My hope for this text is that: (1) Readers are left with an appreciation of the
uncertainty that exists in Civil Engineering problems and are able to quantify and
treat the uncertainty in a proper way to enhance Civil Engineering design, and
