The Adoption of Circularity in Modular Construction in Developing Countries Using System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

A country’s economic development fundamentally relies on its construction industry that is notably resource intensive and generates extensive amounts of waste leading to numerous environmental impacts. Wherefore, modular construction (MC) is known to instigate circular economy (CE) for the sector’s circularity gap to be reduced. But there is only a limited literature available focusing on their significant combined effect. Hence, the following study aims to facilitate the convenient adoption of circularity in modular construction practices. A system dynamics model (SDM) was prepared for this purpose. The research initiates with a keen literature review, content analysis and preliminary survey to sift down twenty notable factors for implementation. Then through a detailed questionnaire survey and opinions of experts’ from developing countries, the interconnectivity and functionality of these factors were established. To address the complexity of these interactions, a systems thinking approach was employed. Subsequently, a causal loop diagram (CLD) and influence matrix (IM) were prepared to evaluate their intensity and polarity. One balancing loop and five reinforcing loops constituted the CLD. The SDM formulated hinged upon the CLD and IM was simulated for a period of five years. The SDM essentially had four stocks: “Development of environmental policies”, “Proactive planning for circular MC”, “Collaboration of project team” and “Circular use of recourses”. To contemplate the converging effect of the system, an additional stock named “Adoption of Circular MC” was introduced. The outcomes suggested the escalated implementation of circular MC over time. Furthermore, the intricate interactions among the factors and their impacts on the system were successfully portrayed by the CLD and consequent SDM. Such illustrations could help the industry practitioners focus on the most vital of the factors and to make knowledge-based decisions when envisioning a circular modular project.