Abstract:
Pakistan, a predominantly arid country with a warm temperate climate, faces increasing
drought vulnerability due to declining rainfall and groundwater depletion. This study
analyzes historical data of ERA5-Land dataset from 1950 – 2022 and future projections
from CORDEX under the RCP 8.5 scenario for 2023 – 2072, using ten drought indices,
including Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation
Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standard Precipitation and Temperature Index (SPTI),
Decile Drought Index (DDI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Weighted Anomaly
Standardized Precipitation Index (WASPI), Percent of Normal Precipitation Index (PNPI),
Rainfall Variability Index (RVI), Percentage Area Weighted Departure (PAWD), and ZIndex. The analysis identified eight historical drought events, with two severe episodes,
Drought 1 (1987 – 1988) and Drought 2 (1999 – 2002), selected for detailed examination.
The analysis identified SPI, SPEI, and Z-Index are the best and most effective indices for
drought monitoring, validated through performance metrics such as Mean Bias Error
(MBE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Correlation Coefficient (CC). Ziarat district, has
been identified as a hotspot, or the most vulnerable region in Pakistan for drought.
Projected data indicate that 2030 – 2031, 2036 – 2037, 2061 – 2063, and 2069 – 2070 are
extremely vulnerable years to severe droughts. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures for
district ziarat include rainwater harvesting, early warning systems, water management
technologies, and the adoption of drought-resistant crops
