Assessing The Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Change of Twin Cities- Islamabad/Rawalpindi Area

Abstract

Changing land use and land cover (LULC) poses a serious threat to the ecosystem and has broad ramifications for sustainable development, resource management, and city planning. Modelling and projecting LULC change dynamics in the Islamabad and Rawalpindi districts is the main focus of this research, which aims to better understand the implications of these changes. Using GIS, socioeconomic data, and remote sensing data, the study examines LULC patterns across history, builds predictive models, and projects potential future outcomes. Natural landscapes have been profoundly changed by human activity, particularly in areas like Southeast Asia where the effects of climate change and population increase are particularly severe. The ability to understand the effects of changes in land use and land cover (LULC) is crucial for achieving sustainable development, especially in terms of effective water management. Geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing were utilized to observe changes in land use. Additionally, cellular neural network cellular automata (CNN-CA) modeling was employed to predict future changes in land use and land cover (LULC) using GIS. This research looked into the Islamabad/Rawalpindi catchment region's LULC fluctuations from 1990 to 1995, 2000 to 2005, 2010 to 2015, and 2020. Predictions for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 are also included in the study report. Landsat satellite images were used to monitor the changes in land usage. In order to classify Landsat images, we used maximum likelihood supervised classification. Water bodies, built-up areas, vegetation, and barren lands (including agri-based lands) are the four main categories described by the wide classification in the research domain. A considerable decrease in dense forests was seen between 1990 and 2020, whereas a big fall in barren regions and a rapid increase in build-up land utilization were both shown by 2020. In addition, the results of the CNN-CA simulations will show that other classes will be displaced by urban areas in 2030, 2040, and 2050. However, dense woods are expected to drastically decrease throughout the anticipated years. The article effectively showcases the notable land use change trend in the Islamabad/Rawalpindi watershed region by presenting LULC patterns and future forecasts. The data could provide valuable insights for the administration of land use and future planning in the region.