UKRAINE WAR

Abstract

The Ukraine conflict has lingered on, quite unexpectedly. Russia’s so-called special military operation has met with great resistance and a pushback. The question of morality apart, reverses on the battlefield have not prevented Russia from legislating a new geography for itself through the referendum and consequent redrawing of its own map. The West has flooded Ukraine with intelligence and weapons, but how long will this endure? Neither Ukraine nor Russia is making military gains along a frontline that has solidified after prolonged fighting, with victories and reverses for both sides. By all accounts, Russia has not given up as its fresh mobilisation suggests. Neither has Ukraine, but it is finding it difficult to keep up the barrage in the face of acute shortages of munition. Both sides have experienced tumult in their military hierarchies, and both have made use of asymmetrical means to erode the confidence of the adversary, including targeted assassinations. The cost of any reconstruction, post-settlement, can only be imagined. Who will pay for all that? Meanwhile, the world faces disruptions in supply chains of food, fuel and fertilisers. More relevantly, the Ukraine War has created a false narrative that India must face a binary choice between ‘good’ and ‘evil’ forces, that is, between a liberal and democratic cohort led by the West and its antithesis in Russia. Such a dilemma is being extended to a stark choice between Russian arms and American ones. Even the energy needs of a large country such as India, with 1.4 billion people, now also the world’s fastest growing economy, are frequently under the scanner; if India buys crude oil and LNG from Russia, it is tantamount to sacrilege in the eyes of critics. The yardstick is different if European Union countries or