Abstract:
Poultry production and pricing dynamics are crucial in Pakistan's agricultural sector,
providing a significant protein source for the population and contributing to the
national economy. This study utilizes the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model
to analyse the price trends of poultry (chicken) in Pakistan, considering factors such as
feed costs, day-old chick (DOC) prices, beef prices, potato prices, exchange rates,
manufacturing index, and interest rates. By examining time series data from January
2012 to June 2022, we have identified the long-run and short-run relationships between
poultry (chicken) prices and input costs, particularly feed prices and day-old chick
(DOC) prices, emphasizing the impact of production expenses on poultry (chicken)
prices. Moreover, the interest rate is identified as a key factor influencing poultry price
dynamics. Additionally, exchange rates, beef prices, and potato prices are also found
to affect poultry (chicken) prices in the short run.
