Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts of Run-Of-The- River Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Project (GBHP) Located on Indus River, Pakistan

Abstract

The need for assessing environmental and socio-economic impacts of Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Project (GBHP) has stemmed from very limited global information about Run-of-the-river projects. These projects are getting widespread importance in developing countries as they are considered safe due to their design, resulting in their fast paced development. However, number of studies and the consequent information regarding impacts of Run-of-the-river projects is very limited worldwide. Present study used a holistic approach to analyze the impacts of GBHP on areas located downstream of its diversion barrage. Environmental impacts of the project were determined through assessing hydrological, meteorological and land use land cover (LULC) characteristics of the areas, occurring before and after the project functioning. Secondary data on river discharge, precipitation, temperature and groundwater depths was utilized for this purpose and analyzed from the year 1990 till 2020. Whereas LULC determination for agriculture area, vegetation and baresoil was performed through Google Earth Engine using Random Forest machine learning technique for the same time period. Statistical methods were applied to further draw conclusions among hydrological, meteorological and LULC interrelationships. For socio-economic analysis, 384 respondents were consulted during the field survey and their responses were collected using semi-structured and self-administered proformas. This acquired primary data to assess the changes in the local livelihoods and socio-economic characteristics of the inhabitants of study area after project functioning. This was carried out using descriptive and inferential statistics along with t-tests to present significant changes occurring after functioning of Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Project. Results showed that after functioning of GBHP, there was 45% and 96% reduction of river discharge, in kharif and rabi seasons respectively. Groundwater depths also increased by 58% and 55.7% during these seasons. Strong negative correlation was found between river discharge and groundwater depth (R2=0.80). The project also caused major LULC changes in project downstream areas from 2002-2010, as there was a significant decrease in area

xviii under agriculture by 29.10% and 47%, during kharif and rabi seasons respectively. Agriculture loss was attributed to increase in groundwater depth as both indicators showed another strong correlation (p<0.05). However, from 2010-2020, agriculture area again increased by 75.61% and 84.53% in kharif and rabi seasons respectively, as compared to 2002-2010. Agriculture land recovery, in post Ghazi Barotha period, was mainly strategized through further groundwater exploitation which was an unsustainable strategy. However, according to respondent perceptions, better seeds, and farmers capacity building adopted by related institutions were pivotal for compensating livelihood losses. Socio-economic analysis revealed major livelihood changes occurring in study area after functioning of GBHP. The study found major reduction in households’ owned area under kharif and rabi crops, agriculture production and livestock ownership, after implementation of the project (p<0.001). The area faced drastic changes in production of sugarcane, wheat, tobacco, and other smaller crops, besides a sharp drop in livestock rearing. Resultantly, the proportion of households deriving their income from agriculture fell from 81% to 60%, coupled with radical reduction in livestock livelihoods (from 70% to 16%). However, number of trees owned per household increased by 70%, with households’ dependency on trees increasing from 17% to 23.5%. These changes also led to increased proportion of formal and informal employment acquired by household members (from 35% to 58%). Reduced water availability was considered the most significant negative impact dragging the locality to agricultural as well as livestock losses. However, the study also revealed an improvement in local infrastructure (roads) – resulting in improved mobility, accessibility of services and enhancement in the local security. Findings of this study generated ample information to fill the information void related to GBHP and will also prove instrumental in planning of similar projects. This also generates impetus required for devising better monitoring and management tools by project planners. The findings also aid in devising future policies related to Run-of-the-river projects and to guide related institutions for shaping better compensation and mitigation strategies. Keywords: Run-of-the-river projects, LULC, Indus River, Google Earth Engine, Respondent survey.