SPATIO-TEMPORAL GROWTH ANALYSIS OF ZONE-IV, ISLAMABAD

Abstract

Islamabad Master Plan (1960-2000) divided Capital Territory into various zones of urban and rural area. Islamabad Capital Territory Zone-IV, the study area, spreads nearly 287 km2 of rural land. Unauthorized construction and expansion is continuously increasing in its existing villages which are wiping out its fertile agricultural land. The study explores the nature and extent of spatial growth; future growth potential and major reasons for unauthorized construction in the study area. In this study, population data (year 1972, 1981, 1998 and 2007) and high resolution satellite imageries (year 1992, 1998, 2007) were used in GIS analyses. Unstructured interviews were used to explore major reasons for unauthorized spatial growth in ICT Zone IV. The population densities have spread as bow shaped waves originating from the central high density areas. In the past 35 years, population centre has shifted 14 km towards existing urban areas. The population has been increasing rapidly in settlements which are closer to existing urban areas. The process of population rank increase in villages has shifted from mobility to stability in spatial context. From 1992 to 1998, built-up area increased on average by 0.2 km2 per year. Subsequent to 1998, built-up area expanded by 0.5 km2 per year. The buildings constructed after 1992 are more clustered than those constructed prior to 1992. Visual interpretation of June 2007 Quickbird imagery, having 0.6 meter spatial resolution, shows the following land use classes: Agriculture spreads over nearly 52 per cent of the land; built-up area covers 05 per cent and forests nearly 13 per cent, vegetation spreads over 28 per cent of the area while remaining 02 per cent land falls under 'others' category. Temporal image analysis shows that forests experienced highest decrease of 36 km2 while the built-up area increased by 5.6 km2• Nearly 6 per cent land of Zone IV carries 'Very High' future growth potential for urban expansion. Major reasons to uncontrolled expansion in the study area are; (a) Absence of an integrated development plan; (b) Poor plan implementation, ( c) Poor development control by Capital Development Authority and ( d) The duality of control. Land management through sub zoning, increase in urban housing supply and forest preservation and expansion are recommended options to control ongoing unauthorized expansion in the Zone.