IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELD BY USING DSSAT AND GIS: A CASE STUDY OF POTHOHAR REGION

Abstract

Today global climate change and its impact on crop production is a major issue. Climatic factor such as temperature has been closely linked to agricultural production. According to the international panel on climate change (IPCC) these changes are very rapidly affecting crop productivity. To explore the future climate change impacts on wheat yield in Pakistan, especially the rain fed region of Pothohar which is considered vulnerable to climate change, a wheat crop simulation study was conducted. The specific objectives of the study were to (a) simulate the impact of climate change using DSSAT on wheat yield in the Pothohar region using IPCC climate change scenario for Pakistan and (b) generate spatial maps of wheat yield and correlate with climatic factors. The crop simulation study assessed the impact of a rise in max. & min. Temperature on the wheat yield. The CERES-Wheat which is a component of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was used to input soil, crop management practices and weather data. According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment report B 1 scenario for increasing temperature was used in the simulations. The simulated results were imported into ArcGIS to produce regional impact maps for visual assessment and spatial analysis under different climate change scenarios levels through an interface of ArcMap. The DSSAT model simulated resuhs showed that the rise in maximum and minimum temperature decreased the wheat yields across the Pothohar region. The similar methodology could be adopted for different crops in other parts of the country for better mitigation of future food security.