Analyzing Extremes of Rainfall Using L-moments For The Sites of Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Extreme weather conditions refers to the unusual weather patterns that can be severe in its effects. For example, the frequency of heavy rainfall events are resulting in severe flood events in different parts of the world. This situation is becoming threatening for life, health, sanitation, agricultural production, water resources and hopes of development of any society. Moreover, developing countries with scarce resources are sensitive to these changes and the consequences are manifold due to lack of research and development to analyze the actual impact and risks associated due to extreme weather conditions, especially on agricultural production. Therefore, the requirement of analyzing the extremes of rainfall is becoming vital and demands dynamic, accurate and reliable methods of analyses. This study will focus on the sites of Punjab, Pakistan as being the most populated province, with largest share in national agriculture production, diversity in terms of spatial characteristics and limited available water resources for crops production. In this research we have performed regional frequency analysis to accurately estimate quantiles for up-to 100-year return periods. The results have shown that the two distributions: GLO and GNO are suitable candidates for regional quantile estimation for the two regions of Punjab. The results of this study is useful for the scientists/researchers dealing with hydro-met projects, for sustainable water resources management, planning for weather-related emergencies and agricultural management.