Abstract:
Climate change refers to the rising changes in the measures of climate over a longer period
of time. It includes rainfall, temperature and wind patterns. The variations in the climate
cycles are causing more rain to fall than usual at a site or dry period extends to the extent of
drought. These variations in extremes are causing adverse effects on human, social and
economic sectors including agricultural production and water resources. Pakistan being an
agricultural country with depleting resources of dealing with climate change is one of the
major affected countries due to climate change. Therefore, there is a need to analyze the
impacts of climate change on the extremes of rainfall and to forecast the magnitude and
frequency associated with these extremes. Accurate and reliable prediction of extremes of
rainfall will be useful for disaster management, irrigation and water resources management,
especially in the areas with frequent rainfall.
This study is an application of L-moments based regional frequency analysis using winter
maximum rainfall series of six sites of north-western region of Pakistan. The discordancy
measure (Di) shows that none of the site in a group of six sites is discordant. The regional
heterogeneity measure (H) shows that the region of six sites is homogeneous. L-moment ratio
diagram and |ZDIST| statistic is in favor of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) as best-fit
regional distribution. Parameters of GEV distribution and regional as well as at-site quantiles
up- to 100-year, return period have been accurately estimated. The results of this study will
be useful for the scientists/researchers dealing with disaster management, hydro-met projects
for sustainable water resources management, planning for weather related emergencies and
agricultural management.
Keywords: Extremes of rainfall
