Abstract:
The long-term forecasting of electricity demand and supply at regional level has recently gained significance due to competitiveness of decentralized energy system. For sustainable development of any region, energy demand and supply modeling plays a key role. This thesis is based on LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning) to calculate the total demand and supply of Gilgit-Baltistan for the base year 2016 to the end year 2050. Gilgit is an area of massive strategic and economic-importance, located in the northern most region of Pakistan, which connects with China through Khunjerab pass, India through Astore & Skardu districts and Afghanistan through Ghizer valley. It acts as the gateway for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. Gilgit-Baltistan is divided into two main divisions namely, Gilgit and Baltistan Division. The total demand of Gilgit-Baltistan is mainly composed of residential, industrial and commercial sub-sectors. End user approach and econometric approach is used for analysis of electricity demand and supply, also supply side and demand side scenarios were built in this research. For demand side, Business as Usual (BAU) and Demand Side Management (DSM) are discussed scenario, while on supply side, three different scenarios were built which are BAU, DSM and National Energy Mix (NEM) scenario. Environmental aspects and cost of production for different technologies has also studied. Overall, the forecasted electricity demand and supply analysis of Gilgit-Baltistan will be able to provide sustainable alternatives for demand side management and supply policy decisions at regional level.
