Abstract:
Decentralization of the power system has influenced the urban level electricity modeling and planning with the renewables being incorporated in the system. Energy demand and supply is of fundamental importance dealing with the sustainable development of any region. This research analyzes the bottom up energy approach in LEAP model to analyze the electricity demand and supply of all sectors of Islamabad and Rawalpindi. The importance of this research is that it will help explain the urban electricity issues and will help with the energy planning and modeling at urban level. There are mainly six sectors that account for demand of electricity in both Rawalpindi and Islamabad namely, industrial, commercial, residential, bulk, agriculture and public lights. Both demand and supply side scenarios are developed using the econometric as well as end user approach. The demand side scenario includes the reference scenario (Ref) as per the growth rates of al the sectors along with the reference high scenario (Ref HI) and reference low scenario (Ref Low) based on the efficiency of the devices that could causes a change in the growth rates over the years. The supply side scenarios are the reference scenario (Ref), national ratio scenario (NAT) and renewable scenario (REN). Environmental aspects are also discussed and compared in the form of emission analysis for all the scenarios so that the best possible scenario could be analyzed. The results are in favor of the renewable scenario which not only provide an effective demand requirement but also provides the environment friendly emission analysis. The overall results of these scenarios will help provide sustainable demand as well as supply side policy concerns in this region.
