PROBABLISTIC ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY AND DESIGN OF EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Abstract

The project focuses on estimating the intensity of earthquake by analyzing previous available seismic data of maximum annual intensity of earthquake recorded on Richter scale and designing an earthquake early warning system. The data is analyzed for the various seismically active zones of Pakistan which is located at almost the juncture of Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. The results are derived based on the assumption that the natural hazards such as earthquake follow a fixed pattern and are based on the probabilistic seismic hazard theory. The Gaussian transformation and Pearson Type III distributions were used for the analysis of data. The results are plotted on log probability paper. This research provides sound basis for designing an earthquake early warning system for seismically active areas of Pakistan. The study contributes to mitigation of earthquake risk and the pre earthquake effective and economical design of mega structures and skyscrapers.