Abstract:
China, being the world‟s largest population and energy consuming country strives till date for
the security and optimization of its crude oil imports to fulfil its growing energy demands.
Presently, the two maritime routes [Via Myanmar (12 days) and Via Malacca (22 days)] are
not serving the purpose owing to their inbuilt strategic, security and time/space limitations
which have been highlighted in the study. For instance, Beijing fears that during a national
security crisis ships carrying energy capitals could be prohibited by hostile naval forces. Any
disruption to the free flow of energy resources into China could disrupt the economic
progress on which the Chinese government depends to build up its legitimacy and pursue its
great power desires. The narrowest point in the strait is only 1.7 miles wide, which creates a
natural bottleneck for shipping. Pakistan being part of China‟s BRI initiative can serve the
purpose mutually benefitting both nations. Firstly the transport security and secondly, the sea
travel time can be reduced to only 4 days via Gawader. The evaluation and selection of
alternative transnational export routes is a complex multi-criteria problem with conflicting
objectives. The study was carried out in 6 distinct and logically leading steps. The experts
were asked to carry out a series of DELPHI rounds to arrive at the most manageable and
rational issues pertinent to each route. The experts were assisted by the facilitators for
compiling and sharing results incognito. We identified 7 potential routes which can be used
to transport crude oil to China. 2 of them were eliminated in initial phases of study through
logical dominance. The remaining 5 routes were examined and evaluated using the PESTLESWOT factor analysis. 144 strategic PESTLE factors were identified and managed through
DELPHI rounds after listing as per SWOT by experts. Each potential route was studied
against 27 finalized factors; their normalised weights were calculated by balancing strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Results were plotted on a scatter plot and ranked by
calculating their Euclidean distances. As a result, a ranking of routes which was balanced and
weighed according to the importance and positivity of each strategic factor was achieved. The
potentials of CPEC being part of BRI were further illuminated
