A hybrid-Delphi (Pestle-Swot) Paradigm for oil and GAS pipeline Strategic Planning in CPEC

Abstract

China, being the world‟s largest population and energy consuming country strives till date for the security and optimization of its crude oil imports to fulfil its growing energy demands. Presently, the two maritime routes [Via Myanmar (12 days) and Via Malacca (22 days)] are not serving the purpose owing to their inbuilt strategic, security and time/space limitations which have been highlighted in the study. For instance, Beijing fears that during a national security crisis ships carrying energy capitals could be prohibited by hostile naval forces. Any disruption to the free flow of energy resources into China could disrupt the economic progress on which the Chinese government depends to build up its legitimacy and pursue its great power desires. The narrowest point in the strait is only 1.7 miles wide, which creates a natural bottleneck for shipping. Pakistan being part of China‟s BRI initiative can serve the purpose mutually benefitting both nations. Firstly the transport security and secondly, the sea travel time can be reduced to only 4 days via Gawader. The evaluation and selection of alternative transnational export routes is a complex multi-criteria problem with conflicting objectives. The study was carried out in 6 distinct and logically leading steps. The experts were asked to carry out a series of DELPHI rounds to arrive at the most manageable and rational issues pertinent to each route. The experts were assisted by the facilitators for compiling and sharing results incognito. We identified 7 potential routes which can be used to transport crude oil to China. 2 of them were eliminated in initial phases of study through logical dominance. The remaining 5 routes were examined and evaluated using the PESTLESWOT factor analysis. 144 strategic PESTLE factors were identified and managed through DELPHI rounds after listing as per SWOT by experts. Each potential route was studied against 27 finalized factors; their normalised weights were calculated by balancing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Results were plotted on a scatter plot and ranked by calculating their Euclidean distances. As a result, a ranking of routes which was balanced and weighed according to the importance and positivity of each strategic factor was achieved. The potentials of CPEC being part of BRI were further illuminated