Abstract:
Over the last decades, experts have observed irregular behavior and lack of stability of Karakoram
Glaciers. These behaviors include glacier surges and formation of glacier lakes. Global warming
has influenced this trend, as people have started living near the mountains. People have raised
construction industry, hydropower plants, tourism resorts and leisure spots etc. Risks associated
with the GLOFs pose a serious threat to communities in Karakoram Mountains of Pakistan. Glacier
lake is formed as a result of Shishper glacier surge that has potential to submerge the infrastructures
in downstream i.e. Karokaram Highway, Bridge, houses, FWO camp and two powerhouses if
outburst occurs. The low-lying areas alongside the Hunza River are also vulnerable to flood. This
study was designed to map the spatio-temporal movement of Shishper glacier and its glacial lake
and to predict and assess the risk of glacier surge and lake burst phenomenon. To fulfil the
objectives following softwares and models were used i.e., ArcGIS (Preprocessing and creation of
data for glacier surge and GLOF simulation), HECRAS (for GLOF simulation), Global Mapper
(creation of watershed area in AOI) and Rapid Mass Movement and Simulation RAMMS (for
glacier surge). Through predictive modelling, the volume of the glacial lake is estimated to be 200
million cubic feet and draining at the rate of 15 CUSEC (flow will increase gradually). With glacial
mass sitting along a stretch of more than 565 m in its flow path, possibility of the lake outburst is
not likely. However, the debris flow of glacier was predicted through predictive modelling. The
study commends the glaciers has an abnormal behavior, it is essential to track the Glacier and
Glacier lake frequently and reduce the terrible effects of possible GLOF threat. Sabo dams,
protection walls along Hassanabad village and FWO camp, debris flow breaker are recommended
