Abstract:
Renewable energy resource utilization can address the both most emerging issues of
the world in the current era: rapid depletion of conventional fossil fuel reserves and
drastic climate changes. The main theme of this work is an analytical and simulation
analysis of Wind Power generation of Pakistan, a country facing disastrous power
and gas shortfalls. For this techno-economic assessment of wind energy generation
is performed 50 MW wind farm at Gwadar districts, (Gawadar, Jiwani, Pasni,
Ormara) Baluchistan –Pakistan. To explore the best wind power potential, four years
wind speed data is analyzed and forecasted through the ARIMA model using
Minitab Software. Accuracy of ARIMA model is evaluated with Mean Absolute
Percentage Errors of Mexico city literature work. Based on this it is concluded that
all four cities have less than 19% error which is satisfactory. On the forecasted wind
speed various rated rotary engines were examined at different hub heights (60m,
80m, 100m and 117m). The Annual Energy Generation from all rotary engines at
different hub heights are calculated through mathematical calculation by considering
all possible losses, i.e. roughness coefficient, temperature and pressure effect, wake
up effect, the for percentage of energy absorbed to the grid etc. and different wind
rotary engine availability fraction at different cities. Furthermore, through numerical
methods using Minitab, Stats Graphics, and EViews it is concluded that the most
suitable hub height for wind rotary engines in Gwadar district is 117m and highest
capacity factor found at Ormara on this height is 3 percent with annual wind energy
production of 167 GWh/year. The Pasni has Capacity factor 21 percent with annual
energy production is 88/year GWh. Gwadar Capacity found 13.5 percent with
annual energy production is 58 GWh/year and Jiwani Capacity Factor has been
found 6.54 percent with annual energy production is 22 GWh/year. Moreover, from
the financial point of view Ormara is giving best Internal Rate of Return that is 18
percent maximum and its payback for period is 7 years, which shows it’s a very
good site from an investor’s point of view. While Jiwani is giving worst result and
its Internal Rate of Return is 3 percent by assuming very high per unit monetary
value of energy.
