Risk Assessment of a Wind Farm in a Coastal Areas of Baluchistan- Pakistan /

Abstract

Renewable energy resource utilization can address the both most emerging issues of the world in the current era: rapid depletion of conventional fossil fuel reserves and drastic climate changes. The main theme of this work is an analytical and simulation analysis of Wind Power generation of Pakistan, a country facing disastrous power and gas shortfalls. For this techno-economic assessment of wind energy generation is performed 50 MW wind farm at Gwadar districts, (Gawadar, Jiwani, Pasni, Ormara) Baluchistan –Pakistan. To explore the best wind power potential, four years wind speed data is analyzed and forecasted through the ARIMA model using Minitab Software. Accuracy of ARIMA model is evaluated with Mean Absolute Percentage Errors of Mexico city literature work. Based on this it is concluded that all four cities have less than 19% error which is satisfactory. On the forecasted wind speed various rated rotary engines were examined at different hub heights (60m, 80m, 100m and 117m). The Annual Energy Generation from all rotary engines at different hub heights are calculated through mathematical calculation by considering all possible losses, i.e. roughness coefficient, temperature and pressure effect, wake up effect, the for percentage of energy absorbed to the grid etc. and different wind rotary engine availability fraction at different cities. Furthermore, through numerical methods using Minitab, Stats Graphics, and EViews it is concluded that the most suitable hub height for wind rotary engines in Gwadar district is 117m and highest capacity factor found at Ormara on this height is 3 percent with annual wind energy production of 167 GWh/year. The Pasni has Capacity factor 21 percent with annual energy production is 88/year GWh. Gwadar Capacity found 13.5 percent with annual energy production is 58 GWh/year and Jiwani Capacity Factor has been found 6.54 percent with annual energy production is 22 GWh/year. Moreover, from the financial point of view Ormara is giving best Internal Rate of Return that is 18 percent maximum and its payback for period is 7 years, which shows it’s a very good site from an investor’s point of view. While Jiwani is giving worst result and its Internal Rate of Return is 3 percent by assuming very high per unit monetary value of energy.