Abstract:
Vehicular emissions contribute significantly to the pollution levels of a region. The software
utilized for this study is COPERT 5 which is developed by European Environmental Agency and
highly recognized all over the world. This study aims to estimate the emissions of gasoline
passenger cars for the year 2019 and predict the emissions for the upcoming years under
different scenarios. Surveys were conducted and relevant departments were reached out to
obtain the required input parameters and then they were fed into COPERT 5 to estimate
emissions for the base year. Year wise fleet data for the last decade was plotted and the trend line
was then used to project the total number of passenger cars for the upcoming years. Four
different scenarios were developed named as Business as Usual (BAU), Scrap and Replace (S &
R), Hybrid Vehicle Policy (HVP) and Multi Technology Vehicle Policy (MTVP). COPERT 5
model was again utilized to estimate the emissions in each scenario for the year 2021, 2024,
2027 and 2030. Results reveal that the HVP would reduce CO, NOX, VOC, CO2, PM 2.5 and
PM 10 emissions by approximately 10.13%, 12.69%, 4.27%, 7.45%, 4.24% and 3.95%
respectively, in 2030 compared with BAU. While the percentage reduction for MTVP with
respect to BAU for CO, NOX, VOC, CO2, PM 2.5 and PM 10 emissions is approximately
8.97%, 11.41%, 3.69%, 6.72%, 4.24% and 4.12% respectively by 2030. In case of S & R, the
percentage reduction with respect to BAU for CO, NOX, VOC, CO2, PM 2.5 and PM 10 is
found to be 59.94%, 50.11%, 32.35%, 4.71%, -1.82% and -2.23% respectively by 2030. It is
deduced that passenger cars having latest euro standards would produce more PM emissions
through tires and braking system.
