Developing the Emission Inventory of Gasoline Passenger Cars of Islamabad and Evaluating the Impact of Policy Scenarios Using COPERT 5

Abstract

Vehicular emissions contribute significantly to the pollution levels of a region. The software utilized for this study is COPERT 5 which is developed by European Environmental Agency and highly recognized all over the world. This study aims to estimate the emissions of gasoline passenger cars for the year 2019 and predict the emissions for the upcoming years under different scenarios. Surveys were conducted and relevant departments were reached out to obtain the required input parameters and then they were fed into COPERT 5 to estimate emissions for the base year. Year wise fleet data for the last decade was plotted and the trend line was then used to project the total number of passenger cars for the upcoming years. Four different scenarios were developed named as Business as Usual (BAU), Scrap and Replace (S & R), Hybrid Vehicle Policy (HVP) and Multi Technology Vehicle Policy (MTVP). COPERT 5 model was again utilized to estimate the emissions in each scenario for the year 2021, 2024, 2027 and 2030. Results reveal that the HVP would reduce CO, NOX, VOC, CO2, PM 2.5 and PM 10 emissions by approximately 10.13%, 12.69%, 4.27%, 7.45%, 4.24% and 3.95% respectively, in 2030 compared with BAU. While the percentage reduction for MTVP with respect to BAU for CO, NOX, VOC, CO2, PM 2.5 and PM 10 emissions is approximately 8.97%, 11.41%, 3.69%, 6.72%, 4.24% and 4.12% respectively by 2030. In case of S & R, the percentage reduction with respect to BAU for CO, NOX, VOC, CO2, PM 2.5 and PM 10 is found to be 59.94%, 50.11%, 32.35%, 4.71%, -1.82% and -2.23% respectively by 2030. It is deduced that passenger cars having latest euro standards would produce more PM emissions through tires and braking system.