Abstract:
Climate change is one of the contributing factors in increasing the frequency and severity
of flood disasters around the globe. Developing countries are being disproportionally
affected. In 2010, Pakistan witnessed one of the worst floods in its history. One-fifth of the
country was severely affected, leading to major economic losses and casualties. It is vital
to understand the public risk perception for effective flood risk management. This study
examines flood risk perception and psychological distance to climate change of rural
communities along the Indus River and Chenab River in Muzaffargarh, Pakistan. Flood
risk perception was measured using three main components, i.e., preparedness, worry, and
awareness. Psychological distance to climate change was determined using five
dimensions., psychological distance, geographic, social, temporal, and uncertainty.
Yamane sampling method was used, and 365 samples were collected. Data was collected
using a questionnaire based on a 5-point Likert scale. Respondents were also asked to
outline the 2010 flood extent as perceived by them. Moreover, GIS was used for
visualization and data analysis, where maps were converted to vector polygons. The
indicators considered for generating maps were age and distance to the nearest river. Kernel
density was used to show the extent of the 2010 flood delineated by people at risk.
Descriptive statistics, chi-square test, ANOVA-test, and Pearson’s correlation were
performed. Results indicate that overall flood risk perception and psychological distance
to climate change was moderate in a high flood risk area. A negative correlation was also
observed between uncertainty and worry. This study can facilitate disaster management
authorities in designing integrated flood risk management plans. It also highlights the need
to improve risk communication strategies which will help people to understand climate
change better and adopt sustainable behavior.
