Cognitive Mapping for Flood Risk Management: A case study of rural communities along Indus and Chenab Rivers, Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change is one of the contributing factors in increasing the frequency and severity of flood disasters around the globe. Developing countries are being disproportionally affected. In 2010, Pakistan witnessed one of the worst floods in its history. One-fifth of the country was severely affected, leading to major economic losses and casualties. It is vital to understand the public risk perception for effective flood risk management. This study examines flood risk perception and psychological distance to climate change of rural communities along the Indus River and Chenab River in Muzaffargarh, Pakistan. Flood risk perception was measured using three main components, i.e., preparedness, worry, and awareness. Psychological distance to climate change was determined using five dimensions., psychological distance, geographic, social, temporal, and uncertainty. Yamane sampling method was used, and 365 samples were collected. Data was collected using a questionnaire based on a 5-point Likert scale. Respondents were also asked to outline the 2010 flood extent as perceived by them. Moreover, GIS was used for visualization and data analysis, where maps were converted to vector polygons. The indicators considered for generating maps were age and distance to the nearest river. Kernel density was used to show the extent of the 2010 flood delineated by people at risk. Descriptive statistics, chi-square test, ANOVA-test, and Pearson’s correlation were performed. Results indicate that overall flood risk perception and psychological distance to climate change was moderate in a high flood risk area. A negative correlation was also observed between uncertainty and worry. This study can facilitate disaster management authorities in designing integrated flood risk management plans. It also highlights the need to improve risk communication strategies which will help people to understand climate change better and adopt sustainable behavior.