Simulation and Modelling of an Integrated Hybrid Energy System of Pakistan

Abstract

The economic development of a country is strongly associated with the development and security of energy supply systems. The energy sector of Pakistan has been facing various challenges from planning to implementation. This has time to time, resulted in energy shortages in the country, thereby severely affecting the economy and society. The overall energy sector has been facing issues in planning, regulations, market operations, financial management, sustainability, and efficiency. Pakistan has not pursued “an integrated energy approach” for formulating its energy policies. The governments remained involved in preparing disaggregated policies which mostly targeted the major sectors involving a short period for resource exploitation and allocation while neglecting the other sectors. This poor management created issues at the planning level and did not show the required result after implementation.

This research work presents the integrated energy demand and supply model of Pakistan by using LEAP forecasting and backcasting approaches. Non-energy demand is also included in the analysis to assess the overall demand of the country. To assess the energy and non-energy (fuel) demand of the country, eight (08) scenarios have been developed in the demand forecast model. The electricity supply model contains (10) scenarios along with multi-criteria decision making analysis (MCDMA). Whereas three scenarios have been developed for coal mining, oil refining, and gas production. The Business as usual (BAU) scenario is based on government policies having different

growth rates for different sectors. Low Growth Scenario (LGS), Normal Growth Scenario (NGS), and High Growth Scenario (HGS) are alternative pictures of (BAU) scenarios with different set of assumptions and GDP growth rate.Demand Management and energy efficiency are implemented in all these scenarios to evaluate corresponding energy savings by LEAP backcasting approach. The same approach (backcasting) is applied to the energy efficiency of the transport sector pursuing the targets of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The Least Cost Generation Scenario (LCGS) of electricity supply is based on the LEAP Optimization feature and provides the least cost energy mix for any region or country. It may or may not be a policy scenario for a country under open boundary conditions. Policy constraints are added in LCGS to make it a policy scenario. Green Scenario (GRS) maximizes renewable resources of the country whereas Hydel, Nuclear, Wind, Solar, Coal, Gas, Waste and Biomass Scenarios maximize corresponding energy sources in the

respective scenario. All these scenarios have been developed to explore the optimal energy mix for the country. The electricity supply analysis is carried out by considering techno- economic parameters of all technologies for emission reduction and cost savings by pursuing the demand of HGS as all other scenarios have lower demand than HGS. Long- range Energy Alternative Planning (Low Emission Analysis Platform) (LEAP) is used for integrated demand-supply assessment and environmental emissions calculations. The non- energy demand (Natural Gas use to produce ammonia and urea and oil consumption as lube oil or mineral turpentine etc) of the country is also incorporated into the analysis to find the overall fuel demand.

Results indicate that the total Energy and non-energy demand of Pakistan in 2040-41 will be 129.7 Million Tons of Oil Equivalent (MTOE) in BAUS, 154.4 MTOE in LGS, 190.7 MTOE in NGS, 261.7 MTOE in HGS. Demand Management and Energy Efficiency of BAUS, LGS, NGS, and HGS indicate 95.7 MTOE, 118.6 MTOE, 146.5 MTOE and 201 MTOE respectively. In a broader sense, the total demand of Pakistan will be between 129.7 MTOE (BAUS) and 261.7 MTOE (HGS) in 2040-41 without demand management and energy efficiency, whereas the demand will fall between 95.7 MTOE and 201 MTOE by applying demand management and energy efficiency.

In 2040-41 Electricity demand of the country will be 292 Terawatt hours (TWh) in BAUS, 310.5 (TWh) in LGS, 383.3 TWh in NGS, and 525.9 TWh in HGS. By applying demand management and energy efficiency, this demand will drop to 233.6 TWh in BAUS, 249.2 TWh in LGS, 307.4 TWh in NGS, and 421.5 TWh in HGS. If all the electricity supply scenarios pursue the demand of HGS and install electricity generation capacity by using the LEAP Endogenous capacity variable, then the highest capacity will be installed in Solar and Wind Scenarios due to the lower availability of these resources.

Techno-economic and environmental analysis of all electricity supply scenarios suggests hydel technology is the least-cost electricity generation option in the country followed by wind and solar. Electricity generation cost in HS will be $ 63.87 million for each TWh production whereas this cost will be $ 100.74 million in BAUS in 2040-41. Though the costs in BAUS are reduced due to the massive deployment of hydel technology in approved government plans even then, the HS costs are lower than BAUS costs.