MODELING GLOFs AND DEBRIS FLOW RISK ASSESSMENT USING PROCESS-BASED MODELS AND GEOINFORMATICS TECHNIQUES: A CASE STUDY OF ISHKOMAN VALLEY, GILGIT BALTISTAN

Abstract

Natural hazards are destructive because they destroy homes, roads, and businesses. Pakistan is currently facing a multitude of climate-related challenges, especially muti-hazards in areas like Badswat and Ishkoman, Ghizer in Gilgit Baltistan. These challenges include the risks associated with Debris Flow and GLOFs. These risks arise from complex interactions that involve regional dynamics, local factors, and climate change. The present study is conducted to examine RAMMS Debris Flow model, and the temporal and spatial differences of seasonal rainfall and temperature data is used to examine the pattern of the events. We used DEM based data and precipitation data from 1990–2022. During the pre-monsoon months, there is a significant amount of rainfall, which is then followed by the arrival of the monsoon months. Significant instances of heavy rainfall in July 2018 and August 2022, along with increasing temperatures in June and additional rainfall in July, lead to the events of Debris Flow in Badswat and Ishkoman. The surface area of Badswat lake has reached 0.61 km2 in 2022. The maximum flow height simulated for Badswat debris flow was 3m reaching 9m while for Faizabad 2m reaching 7m. Average Velocity was 4 to 6 m/s. The findings emphasise the gravity of these these hazards, especially during the summer, which continues to be a source of worry for local communities. Precipitation indices are essential for closely monitoring the occurrence of debris flow and landslip patterns. The significance of taking proactive measures to tackle climate-related issues and ensuring that communities are prepared to take action. This study highlights the importance of climate adaptation in vulnerable areas, advocating for sustainable practices, early warning systems, and community resilience to mitigate the detrimental impacts of recurrent climate-related disasters.