The Taiwan Factor and US-China Strategic Competition

Abstract

With the intensifying US-China great power competition in the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan has increasingly become a significant geopolitical flashpoint. The study hypothesizes that the growing strategic rivalry between the US and China is likely to increase US support for Taiwan. By analyzing evolving geopolitical environment in the Indo-Pacific, the research identifies primary strategic motivations behind enhanced US cooperation with Taiwan. Moreover, the study analyzes how US policy towards Taiwan changed amid increasing US-China strategic competition. The research also assesses the implications of this increased US support, particularly concerning regional stability and the possibility of military escalation. Grounded in the theoretical framework of offensive, this study employs a qualitative research methodology, utilizing secondary data, and content analysis as the research tool. The study argues that the strategic significance of Taiwan has increased in the US security realm as the US seeks to counter China's influence. Under Biden administration, the US has shifted from its traditional approach of strategic ambiguity, adopted by its predecessors, to more explicit support for Taiwan which is showing the signs of strategic clarity. This support is manifested in increased military and economic support, boosted diplomatic ties, and significant legislative actions. Finally, the study argues that enhanced US support for Taiwan risks escalating tensions with China that might lead to military conflict and disruptions in global semiconductor supply chains while fostering pro-independence sentiments in Taiwan and provoking severe responses from China. It could also pose foreign policy challenges for other states – including Pakistan, India and Europe.