China-India-Pakistan Nuclear Triangle: Reassessing South Asian Strategic Stability

Abstract

The intertwined and overlapping relationships between India, Pakistan, and China have evolved into a nuclear triangle. The three states have a regional and global presence of their own, while they also share borders with each other. The fact that the three of them are nuclear-capable is concerning. The triangle, unfortunately, is not straightforward. It comprises complex and unstable relationships that have created, in the said triangle, the potential to threaten the strategic stability in South Asia. China and Pakistan have had a decades-long all-weather friendship. Relations between China and India have oscillated between cooperation and competition. India and Pakistan, however, have been arch-enemies since their emergence on the global map. Moreover, the India/Pakistan duad and the India/China duad consist of the menacing element of the territorial disputes, which have kept them from resolving their political and military issues absolutely and indefinitely. The US has played a crucial role in intensifying the challenges created by the triangle. In its pursuit to contain China in the region, the US is facilitating India's military, cyber, and naval advancement. Growing Indian might have intensified security dilemmas and threat perceptions in the region. It has especially placed Pakistan in a vulnerable position and heightened its security concerns. The trajectory of the triangle in recent history has demonstrated that it might be negatively impacting the strategic stability in South Asia and might disastrously destabilize the region in the future. Therefore, studying, analyzing, and contemplating this triangle and its tangible and potential impact on the strategic stability in South Asia is the need of the day and the hour. Only, when it is fully grasped how dangerous a complex nuclear triangle can be for the region, can the policy-makers make informed decisions capable of mitigating the situation. It is qualitative research which comprises of detailed exploration and analysis of the literature on the topic using secondary sources both from the internet and in print. Moreover, in-depth interviews of the experts on the topic were conducted, which provided primary data and allowed the findings to be further practical - taking inspiration from the real-world experiences of the key personalities directly engaged in the politics of South Asia. It is exploratory research focused on deeply exploring the generality and uniqueness of the triangle and how it did, can, and will impact the strategic stability in South Asia.