Abstract:
This research has been carried out to study the Drought conditions in semi-arid regions
of Pakistan by evaluating and forecasting droughts in Bahawalpur division. We have
employed an integrated approach that comprises of both Metrological and Remote
Sensing based indices for drought monitoring. For temporal metrological drought
assessment, we utilized SPI and RDI which were computed for 3-month and 6-month
time scales. For agricultural and Thermal aspects of drought we created maps that
displayed the spread of drought over the region. For these maps we used NDVI, VCI
and TCI indices. We also developed a timeseries for the metrological parameters i.e.
Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET). Considerable variations in in
drought patterns were discovered in the study both spatially and temporally across the
study area. The southern parts of district Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan were found
to be having more droughts that were of high magnitude. Each index while showing a
unique aspect of drought dynamics while integrated with other indices captured an
overall image of water stress and vegetation health that led to an improved drought
evaluation. Lack of rainfall was identified to be the primary driver of droughts in the
region while temperature had a relatively less contribution. Integrated maps were
generated by combining the maps from different indices in different combination for a
more holistic approach using weighted overlay technique. The maps revealed 77% of
the area having mild to moderate drought conditions. Time series forecast suggested
the potential drought trends in the study area in future years. This research contributes
to the understanding of drought dynamics in semi-arid regions by explaining the role
of integrating multiple drought indices and provide implications for long-term planning
by providing valuable insights of the drought conditions in the study area.
