ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF DROUGHTS IN SEMI-ARID CLIMATE USING INTEGRATED REMOTE SENSING AND METEOROLOGICAL DATA BASED INDICES

Abstract

This research has been carried out to study the Drought conditions in semi-arid regions of Pakistan by evaluating and forecasting droughts in Bahawalpur division. We have employed an integrated approach that comprises of both Metrological and Remote Sensing based indices for drought monitoring. For temporal metrological drought assessment, we utilized SPI and RDI which were computed for 3-month and 6-month time scales. For agricultural and Thermal aspects of drought we created maps that displayed the spread of drought over the region. For these maps we used NDVI, VCI and TCI indices. We also developed a timeseries for the metrological parameters i.e. Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET). Considerable variations in in drought patterns were discovered in the study both spatially and temporally across the study area. The southern parts of district Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan were found to be having more droughts that were of high magnitude. Each index while showing a unique aspect of drought dynamics while integrated with other indices captured an overall image of water stress and vegetation health that led to an improved drought evaluation. Lack of rainfall was identified to be the primary driver of droughts in the region while temperature had a relatively less contribution. Integrated maps were generated by combining the maps from different indices in different combination for a more holistic approach using weighted overlay technique. The maps revealed 77% of the area having mild to moderate drought conditions. Time series forecast suggested the potential drought trends in the study area in future years. This research contributes to the understanding of drought dynamics in semi-arid regions by explaining the role of integrating multiple drought indices and provide implications for long-term planning by providing valuable insights of the drought conditions in the study area.