Abstract:
The abrupt U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 has precipitated significant shifts in regional power dynamics, particularly affecting the activities of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). This study employs a Conflict Transformation Framework to explore the intricate interplay of ceasefires and conflict resurgence in the context of the changed geopolitical landscape. The research examines how local and regional shifts influence the TTP's operational strategies and the implications for Pakistan's security environment. Historically, the TTP has capitalized on periods of political instability to fortify its position against the Pakistani state, promoting a stringent form of Sharia. The U.S. withdrawal has not only left a power vacuum but also emboldened the TTP by enhancing their strategic ties with the Afghan Taliban, which now perceives the region's evolving scenario as an opportunity to reassert influence. This study evaluates the factors contributing to the viability and breakdown of TTP’s ceasefire agreements post-U.S. withdrawal, questioning the effectiveness of temporary ceasefires that have often served as strategic pauses for the TTP. Through qualitative analysis, this research delves into ceasefire dynamics, exploring how internal motivations of the TTP and regional geopolitical dynamics interplay with the broader implications for Pakistan’s internal security and stability. The study scrutinizes the recurrent cycle of negotiated ceasefires followed by the inevitable resurgence of conflict, shedding light on the TTP’s exploitation of ceasefire periods for regrouping and rearming rather than peace-building. Key findings suggest that sustainable peace in the region requires a nuanced understanding of the socio-political underpinnings of conflict and the integration of comprehensive peace processes that address the root causes of instability. The study proposes that international stakeholders reassess their engagement strategies to prevent the region from becoming a further incubator for extremism. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the ceasefire dynamics and provides evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and scholars focusing on conflict resolution and peacebuilding in South Asia.
