Abstract:
Energy demand in Pakistan is escalating through Pakistan‘s potential in
renewable energy is a ground reality. But over the time our reliance on conventional
power has substantially increased despite the fact that the world is now moving
towards renewable energy resources. Demand and supply are still struggling to keep
pace with each other. The research work determines the nature of electricity demand
in each economic sector: domestic, commercial, agriculture and industrial. Previous
data of 1980-2015 was used which included GDP, Real price per kWh, Consumers,
population and KWh sales in previous years in each economic sector. To enhance
observations regarding demand and supply forecast in the upcoming decade. We
considered previous data (1980-2015) of the electricity sales in each economic sector
and included most significant variables in the model. For model estimation, we used
non-linear least squares (NLS) with Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
methodology. After getting reliable elasticity estimation of each variables, we used
these elasticities for long term forecasting using regression equation. By using inputs
from E-Views, MATLAB was used to get the results of forecast sale in each
economic sector for 15 years 2016-2030. This forecast sale was used as total energy
demand in the LEAP to analyze supply with respect to this demand. In Leap, 2015
was used as the base year and two scenarios were generated i) Business as usual
(BAU) and ii) Renewable energy scenario. In BAU, we analyzed the power going to
be added in the next decade as planned and how this added power is going to cope
with demand whereas in REN scenario we proposed 5% renewable energy. Risk
assessment of how the developing country like Pakistan is going to get 5% of total
power from renewables. Risks of variability and unreliability of renewables and their
effect future projects. We used solar and wind power as a potential candidate for
renewable power generation. The results will represent the projection of demand and
supply in the future and renewables integration target for 2030.
