Pakistan’s Existing Conventional Power System Expansion by Renewable Energy and Risk Assessment for Future Perspective /

Abstract

Energy demand in Pakistan is escalating through Pakistan‘s potential in renewable energy is a ground reality. But over the time our reliance on conventional power has substantially increased despite the fact that the world is now moving towards renewable energy resources. Demand and supply are still struggling to keep pace with each other. The research work determines the nature of electricity demand in each economic sector: domestic, commercial, agriculture and industrial. Previous data of 1980-2015 was used which included GDP, Real price per kWh, Consumers, population and KWh sales in previous years in each economic sector. To enhance observations regarding demand and supply forecast in the upcoming decade. We considered previous data (1980-2015) of the electricity sales in each economic sector and included most significant variables in the model. For model estimation, we used non-linear least squares (NLS) with Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methodology. After getting reliable elasticity estimation of each variables, we used these elasticities for long term forecasting using regression equation. By using inputs from E-Views, MATLAB was used to get the results of forecast sale in each economic sector for 15 years 2016-2030. This forecast sale was used as total energy demand in the LEAP to analyze supply with respect to this demand. In Leap, 2015 was used as the base year and two scenarios were generated i) Business as usual (BAU) and ii) Renewable energy scenario. In BAU, we analyzed the power going to be added in the next decade as planned and how this added power is going to cope with demand whereas in REN scenario we proposed 5% renewable energy. Risk assessment of how the developing country like Pakistan is going to get 5% of total power from renewables. Risks of variability and unreliability of renewables and their effect future projects. We used solar and wind power as a potential candidate for renewable power generation. The results will represent the projection of demand and supply in the future and renewables integration target for 2030.