Understanding the Relationship between Climate Change and Conflict: A Case Study of Pakistan

Abstract

This research aims to apprehend the phenomenon of climate change as a threat multiplier in Pakistan and conceptualizes the issue through the lenses of vulnerability, risk, and adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it considers Homer Dixon theory (1994) to analyze the relationship between environmental scarcity and threat climate induced conflict in Pakistan. In particular, the concept of vulnerability helped to recognize social and physical vulnerabilities and generate understanding of possible climatic risks, which Pakistan is already facing. Since last decade, repeated incidence of natural disasters especially floods, expose the country highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. In addition to country’s geographical location and socioeconomic conditions making it vulnerable to climate induced natural disasters. In comparison to above-mentioned inkling of environmental insecurity, four key links of climate change have been identified as a threat multiplier: political instability, economic weakness, resource scarcity, and mass migration. This research argues that, climate change may increase the risk of conflict only under certain conditions and as an interactive outcome with certain socio-political factors.