Multi-Dimensional Capacity Analysis of Burhan Khunjerab Alignment in CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) Scenario

Abstract

Pakistan is strategically located at the junction of south Asia, west Asia and central Asia; a way from resource efficient to resource deficient countries. It provides a shortest trade route from Gawadar to Kashgar with eventual possibility of linking it with Central Asian States. To exploit this opportunity China and Pakistan have mutually agreed to establish China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a mega project which includes energy projects, motorways/ highways, railway links, oil and gas pipelines, special economic zones (SEZ), dry ports and communication links. Projects under CPEC are expected to bring overall economic prosperity in the region especially to Pakistan. The Northern Alignment of CPEC consists of Karakoram Highway (KKH), officially designated as N-35 which connects Khunjerab Pass (China-Pakistan border) to Burhan in south. Presently, Burhan-Khunjerab is the solo route available for any trade to enter or leave Pakistan from China. Last railway station which exists in northern part of Pakistan exists at Havelian. The present study carries out multi-dimensional capacity (maximum truck freight load potential) analysis of existing Burhan-Khunjerab alignment with respect to levels of service (LOS) and evaluates different alternatives in terms of number of lanes in order to suggest optimal capacity options as well as optimal route option and distribution of truck freight traffic expected in post CPEC scenario. The comparative analyses between LOS “C” and “D” in terms of travel time savings, crash cost savings and vehicle operating cost (VOC) savings have also been carried out and the analyses revealed that traffic under LOS “C” yields more savings than LOS “D”. The results of this research further revealed that the optimal options having the maximum capacity to handle CPEC freight load is to use E-35 expressway with six lanes and utilizing old alignment (N-35 highway) with existing two lanes. The last portion of the research study deals with the statistical modelling to estimate the truck freight traffic as a function of Pakistan trade and GDP. It has been estimated that 14.40% of the China‟s trade could be handled by Burhan-Khunjerab alignment in the year 2020 if trade considered in US Dollars and 11.99% when trade considered in tons.