An Exploratory Empirical Analysis of Injury Severity of Motorcycle Crashes in Pakistan

Abstract

Among motorized road users motorcyclists are more vulnerable to road traffic fatalities and injuries due to least protection offered. Motorcyclists are victim of one quarter of global road crash fatalities. In Pakistan there has been a disproportionate growth in vehicle population over last one decade particularly the vulnerable means of transport (motorcycles and auto rickshaw). In Pakistan motorcycles constitutes 61% of total registered vehicles and there has been a 371% growth in motorcycles in last on decade (2005-2015). In a single year (2015), 6,074 crashes involving motorcycles have been reported by Rescue 1122, a National Emergency Response Unit. Using motorcycle crash data for one year (July 2014 to June 2015) for Rawalpindi city, present study estimated a mixed logit model to investigate the factors influencing motorcycle cash injury severity. No injury, minor injury, major injury and fatal injury are used as four categories of motorcyclist injury to calibrate the model. Major factors that were considered for analysis include crash-specific factors, roadway geometric characteristics, and environmental conditions. It was revealed that probability of fatal/ major injury increases for crashes: involving middle age riders (25-50 years) and riders with no education, occurring on major arterial roads and road with posted speed limit of 70 kilometer per hour, involving a motorcycle and a heavy vehicle, involving collision with a fixed object, occurring during dry weather conditions, in the early morning hours, late afternoon and early evening hours. Also, probability of minor injury increases for crashes occurring on roads with posted speed limit of less than 50 kilometer per hour, crashes involving registered motorcycle, crashes involving xii cheaper bikes (China manufactured), crashes on divided streets, crashes where at least one motorcycle and auto rickshaw was involved. The research findings suggest that besides measures to control/ reduce the risky behavior from motorcyclists (speeding, not using helmet and improper lane changes etc.), there is a need to lower speed limits on road with high motorcycle proportion, separation of motorcyclist from heavy vehicles and by removing dangerous fixed objects such as poles and trees from roadside. Besides data limitations this is the pioneer study on motorcycle crash injury severity in the country. Results are expected to generate more interest and discussion on motorcycle safety in the country and can be used by Rawalpindi Development Authority to enhance road safety in the city.